2023 review — built the house, kitchen has an OS
Scoring the 2022 forecast
| Prediction | Confidence | Outcome | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| New house construction | 95% | Yes — moved in October | ✓ |
| Structured wiring + PoE backbone | 100% | 42 Cat6 + 12 conduit + 6 PoE camera locations | ✓ |
| Samsung Bespoke kitchen | 90% | Fridge in (October); rest comes early 2024 | ✓ (partial) |
| First Matter devices | 85% | 3 Eve sensors + 1 Nanoleaf bulb live in HA via Matter | ✓ |
| Frame TV in great room | 80% | Yes, installed November | ✓ |
| HA migrates to new house | 95% | Yes, October | ✓ |
| Wall-mounted touchscreens | 80% | 2 of planned 3 installed; office one delayed | ✓ (partial) |
| Old-house gear migrates | 100% | All Z-Wave + most Zigbee migrated | ✓ |
6.5/8 = 85%. Best year since 2013 (also 83%). Construction-driven predictions are easier — you control the budget and timeline.
What got added in the new house
Beyond the structured wiring + Family Hub fridge already documented:
- Lutron Caseta Pro 2 Smart Bridge (rack-mounted in closet). 40+ Caseta switches throughout the house.
- UniFi 24-port PoE switch + UDM Pro router in the closet.
- HA Yellow mounted in the closet (DIN rail).
- 6 Reolink PoE cameras: front, side, back, garage interior, doorbell, pool fence.
- Frame TV 65" (great room) with mounted-flush install. SmartThings hub function active.
- Samsung Galaxy Tab A8 wall-mounted (kitchen) running Fully Kiosk Browser with HA Lovelace.
- iPad mini 6 wall-mounted (master bedroom) — second dashboard.
- 3 Eve Matter motion sensors — first real Matter devices. Joined HA via the Matter beta integration.
- 1 Nanoleaf Matter bulb — testing Matter Light cluster compatibility.
- DIY ESPHome sensors — 24 total in the new house (up from 22 in the old).
What works year-end
- Local-first survives the move. During the move week, the home network was flaky (cable provisioning); all the local automations kept running.
- Family Hub as a SmartThings hub. Bridged into HA.
- Frame TV as a secondary SmartThings hub. Mostly used for casting from the Family Hub.
- 42 Cat6 drops. Already used 38 of them. The "future-proofing" is paying off.
What didn't (yet)
- The mailbox sensor. ESPHome firmware works but the LoRa coverage from the structured-wiring closet to the curb (60 ft, through the house wall + landscaping) isn't reliable. Going to try a different antenna mount in spring.
- The pool fence camera. Installed, but the angle is wrong — too much fence in the frame, not enough pool. Re-mounting in spring.
Forecast for 2024
1. Full Samsung Bespoke kitchen — oven, dishwasher, washer/dryer. (Confidence: 95%) Already on order. March install.
2. EV charger install. (Confidence: 85%) Tesla Wall Connector or Wallbox Pulsar — undecided. April-ish.
3. Matter devices proliferate. (Confidence: 80%) By end of 2024, 20+ Matter devices in the house probably. Locks (Eve), sensors (Eve, Aqara), thermostats (Ecobee gets Matter), bulbs (more Nanoleaf).
4. Frame TV ecosystem post. (Confidence: 95%) Mid-year — the Frame as household display surface + SmartThings hub + media player.
5. The third wall-mounted dashboard (office). (Confidence: 80%) Promised, delayed; doing in Q1.
6. AI sensor classification in Frigate. (Confidence: 60%) OpenCV / DeepStack alternatives mature; getting "the cat is on the kitchen counter" detection working.
7. Tesla Powerwall reconsidered. (Confidence: 40%) Decided against in 2022 but the natural-gas generator's monthly maintenance + emissions are nagging. Re-evaluate.
8. A second LoRa gateway. (Confidence: 65%) For redundancy + extending range further into the yard.
What I'm buying in 2024
- Samsung Bespoke Oven (NE63B8211SS/AA) + Dishwasher (DW80B7070US/AA) + Washer/Dryer (WF50A8800AV/A5).
- EV charger (Tesla Wall Connector, 48A, gen 3) — once the panel upgrade goes through.
- ~10 more Matter devices as they ship.
- A second Coral if needed.