2019 review — local-first arrives, security maturing
End of year. Pattern.
Scoring the 2018 forecast
| Prediction | Confidence | Outcome | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wink platform collapses | 70% | Still limping — investor injections kept them alive | ✗ |
| Glass-break / vibration sensors | 85% | Two Ecolinks + 6 Aqara DJT11LM installed | ✓ |
| HA Companion App fixes BLE presence | 75% | iOS 12.2 + Companion 2.0 → works | ✓ |
| Frigate object detection lands | 60% | Project alive, but RPi-only is slow; Coral USB helps but I haven't bought one | ✗ (partial) |
| Smart lock | 80% | Not yet — kept punting | ✗ |
| Matter still vapor | 50% | Project CHIP announced Dec — rumored, no products | ✓ (it's vapor, as predicted) |
| Second wall dashboard | 70% | Kid's room dashboard installed July | ✓ |
| Aqara outdoor sensors | 60% | Aqara T1 outdoor motion shipped in China; no US distribution yet | ✗ (partial) |
5.5/8 = 73%. Frigate underperformed; smart lock was just a procrastination problem. The Wink miss is starting to look like "they have nine lives."
What got added this year
- 8× Aqara DJT11LM vibration sensors on critical windows + doors (August).
- 2× Ecolink GBHA1 glass-break detectors (August).
- DIY SHT31 sensors in 4 rooms (October-December). MQTT to HA.
- Aeotec Doorbell 6 as in-house siren (May).
- Second iPad mini wall dashboard in master bedroom (July).
- Roomba 980 (October). Vacuum joined the family. iRobot's HA integration works (HA → iRobot cloud → Roomba), latency 2-5s for "start vacuuming" command.
Forecast for 2020
1. Matter / Project CHIP makes serious progress but no products. (Confidence: 60%) First spec draft mid-2020. Devices 2021+.
2. Apple Watch as a smart-home control surface. (Confidence: 70%) With watchOS adding more first-party complications + HA Companion App watch support, the wrist becomes useful for "is the front door locked" glances.
3. Smart lock finally happens. (Confidence: 90%) Yale Assure Z-Wave. This year for real.
4. Frigate matures with a Coral. (Confidence: 75%) Buying a Coral USB. Frigate's gotten plugin-mature; expect daily-driver-quality object detection on the cams by mid-year.
5. HA's z-wave integration overhaul. (Confidence: 80%) The OpenZWave-based HA Z-Wave integration is creaking. The community-rumored Z-Wave JS rewrite would be a major reliability + ergonomic upgrade.
6. Z-Wave 700-series in real products. (Confidence: 65%) Aeotec, Zooz both teased 700-series devices for 2020. Lower power, better range, slightly different chip.
7. Wink either folds or pivots to monthly subscription. (Confidence: 60%) They're financially desperate. Expect drama.
8. A coordinated work-from-home automation set. (Confidence: 50%) As more friends WFH, sharing "I'm in a meeting → flip the desk light red" automations becomes common.
What I'm buying in 2020
- Coral USB Accelerator ($75) when Frigate's worth it.
- Yale Assure Z-Wave lock + Z-Wave deadbolt module.
- Aqara temp/humidity sensors for outdoor placement.
- A Pi 4 (4GB) — the Pi 3 is starting to feel slow under load.