2021 in review — cameras everywhere, Coral landed. 2022 forecast.
End of year.
Scoring the 2020 forecast
| Prediction | Confidence | Outcome | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Frigate + multi-camera person-tracking | 80% | Still on the 0.9 line; solid per-camera detection, but cross-camera re-id isn't here yet | ✗ (the tracking part slipped) |
| Matter / CHIP first dev spec | 80% | Spec drafts circulating, SDK in dev, no consumer products yet | ✓ (partial) |
| Aqara hub replacement story | 65% | Aqara M2 hub shipped; Aqara is loudly telegraphing Matter support | ✓ |
| ESPHome on a dozen DIY devices | 90% | 14 ESP-based sensors deployed | ✓ |
| Aeotec Garage Door Controller | 75% | Installed October | ✓ |
| Second + fourth PoE cameras | 85% | 5 PoE + 1 WiFi cameras now | ✓ |
| Voice assistant fatigue formalized | 60% | Amazon/Google did nothing | ✗ |
| Wink finally folds for real | 70% | Not a clean death — a 10-day outage in February, then a zombie limp-along nobody should trust | ✗ (close; it's abandonware, not gone) |
5/8 + 1 partial = ~69%. The misses cluster on timing: the Frigate re-id and Wink's actual death are both "next year" problems.
What got added
- 5× PoE cameras (Reolink RLC-820A + RLC-822A + a Dahua VTO2311R PoE doorbell): porch, backyard, side yard, driveway, doorbell.
- 1× WiFi camera (Reolink Argus 3): garage.
- Coral USB Accelerator driving Frigate (on the 0.9 line) — the Coral is what makes five-plus camera streams of object detection run on a mini-PC without melting it.
- Aeotec Garage Door Controller (Z-Wave, October).
- 14× ESP-based DIY sensors (ESPHome firmware): SHT31 temp/humidity in 4 bathrooms + kitchen, PIR motion in 3 corner-rooms, plant moisture in 6 indoor planters.
- Sonoff ZBDongle-E (December) — newer Zigbee coordinator, +50% range vs the ZBDongle-P. Migration planned for January.
Forecast for 2022
1. Matter 1.0 ships, first products by Q4. (Confidence: 75%) CSA's been steady. Q3-Q4 launch.
2. Frigate 0.12+ with proper face recognition. (Confidence: 65%) Optional, opt-in. Useful for "the kids are home from school" without GPS.
3. New-house build planning starts. (Confidence: 90%) We're outgrowing the current house. Going to plan a connected-from-the-walls-up build in 2022 with construction in 2023.
4. ESPHome continues exploding. (Confidence: 95%) 20+ DIY sensors by end of year.
5. Aqara Matter-bridge for existing Zigbee devices. (Confidence: 70%) Aqara has telegraphed it.
6. Home Assistant Yellow ships. (Confidence: 80%) HA-branded hardware. Buying one.
7. A "weather station" DIY project. (Confidence: 60%) ESP-based + a bunch of sensors. Outdoor temp / humidity / pressure / wind / rain. Replacement for the increasingly-unreliable home weather station I bought 5 years ago.
8. Tesla Powerwall integration. (Confidence: 50%) Considering solar + Powerwall for next house. If so, the Powerwall has a (semi-)open API that integrates with HA.
What I'm buying in 2022
- HA Yellow ($150).
- Another Coral USB if Frigate face recognition shipping.
- 6-10 more ESPHome boards + sensors.
- A real solar/wind/rain weather station if I can't DIY it well enough.